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    日本上百種制裁措施對準韓國?

    2019-07-04 06:18:33 環球時報

    本報駐韓國特約記者 劉晨 本報記者 邢曉婧

    本月1日,日本宣布將加強3種半導體核心原料對韓國的出口管制,挑起了亞洲兩大經濟體之間的“戰火”,這場“貿易戰”也隨著雙方的你來我往而不斷升溫。近幾天來,韓日之間的經貿糾紛占據了眾多韓國媒體的頭條。有分析稱,日本如今的報復行為只是“百余個籌碼”中的第一個,韓國產業界可能會遭到更多“狙擊”。

    日本報復籌碼的1/100

    據韓國《中央日報》3日爆料,去年11月,韓國外交部和產業通商資源部高層人士接到一通電話。打電話的人是曾在兩個部門任職的前任高官,他警告稱,“韓國大法院做出日本企業要對強制征用勞工的受害者進行賠償的判決后,日本政府或對韓國政府進行經濟報復”,并建議韓國政府要制訂應急計劃。然而,上述兩部門只是回答“知道了”。

    隨著日方發出“第一槍”,這位高官表示,“問題是日本政府準備了百余個報復籌碼,現在才只用了一個”。《中央日報》報道援引貿易專家的預測稱,日方報復措施可能包括“農產品和水產品進口限制”“短期就業簽證限制”和“匯款限制”等。

    在這樣的預測中,韓國產業界更加憂心忡忡。國際半導體產業協會3日稱,以2017為基準進行推測,韓國半導體原材料國產率為50.3%,且在2019年也不會有大的改善,這也將成為韓國的一大短板。

    對此,韓國執政黨共同民主黨政策委員會委員長趙正湜3日表示,政府計劃借日本對韓出口限制進一步加強國內半導體研發競爭力,此前已著手準備相關事宜,爭取在本月內發布對策。韓國產業通商資源部3日決定對半導體材料、零部件、設備研發投入6萬億韓元(約合人民幣352.9億元)的預算,以應對日本限制對韓出口。

    韓國已向WTO提起申訴

    據韓聯社3日報道,韓國外交部長官康京和當日在國會接受質詢時表示,日本限制對韓出口是不合情理且違背常識的報復性措施,韓國外交部要求日本政府立即撤回相關制裁措施,并敦促日方慎重考慮韓方提出的意見。

    “日本應立即撤回貿易報復措施以免名利兩傷”,韓國《中央日報》3日發表社論稱,日本政府決定將限制對韓國出口作為對韓國強制征用勞工判決的報復措施,這是一種拙劣且愚蠢的行為。

    日本此舉也激怒了韓國民眾,從3日開始,韓國網絡上出現不少鼓勵抵制日貨的言論。《中央日報》稱,被韓國網友點名的日本商品覆蓋從知名家電到汽車、化妝品、服裝、手表、酒類等數十個種類。不僅如此,韓國網絡上還開始出現抵制赴日旅游的號召。

    韓聯社稱,韓國政府3日開始向WTO提出申訴,目前韓貿易部已開始審查相關法律文件。

    不過,日本首相安倍晉三3日出席日本NHK電視臺的黨首辯論會時表示,限制對韓出口措施是貿易管理問題,不違反世貿組織規則。

    經濟增長壓力或更大

    就在面臨日本出口限制壓力之時,韓國的經濟又亮起紅燈。韓國政府3日發布預測,將2019年全年經濟增長預期降至2.4%至2.5%,較半年前預測值下調0.2個百分點,較去年實際增速低0.2至0.3個百分點。

    韓國政府表示,雖然消費穩步增長,但出口和投資形勢較去年底的預測進一步惡化。今年第一季度,建設投資同比下降7.2%,設備投資同比下降17.4%,加之美中經貿摩擦影響,占韓國出口總額比重20%的半導體出口未能反彈,因此決定下調經濟增長預期。

    韓媒分析稱,半導體作為韓國的支柱型產業,如果不能盡快找到日本之外的貨源,對韓國的出口與經濟發展而言將是雪上加霜。▲

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