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    特朗普拿安保條約敲打日本

    2019-06-28 06:21:24 環球時報

    ●本報駐日本特約記者 李珍 藍雅歌 ●柳玉鵬

    友誼的小船說翻就翻?當地時間26日,美國總統特朗普針對《美日安保條約》的一番抱怨令日本政府好不尷尬。特朗普接受電視采訪時稱,如果日本遭到攻擊,“我們會打第三次世界大戰”;如果美國遭到攻擊,日本“可以在索尼電視上看著”。有美國媒體日前爆料,特朗普抱怨《美日安保條約》對美國不公平,考慮讓美國退出該條約。隨后日本政府匆忙出面否認。沒想到,離開美國前往日本出席G20大阪峰會前幾個小時,特朗普又公開補了一刀。為跟特朗普搞好關系,日本首相安倍晉三下足了功夫。上月底,作為“令和時代首位國賓”訪日的特朗普在日本“加賀”號護衛艦上說,“美日同盟前所未有地強大”。不到一個月時間,沒想到調門變得這么快。《華盛頓郵報》的感慨或許道出了日本的心聲:“與其他所有人一樣,安倍知道在特朗普時期做美國的盟友會有多難了。”

    “退約”言論令日本緊張

    26日即將出發前往日本之際,特朗普接受福克斯商業頻道的采訪。被問及G20峰會期間雙邊貿易協議的可能性時,特朗普抱怨起來:世界上幾乎所有國家都在“大占美國的便宜”。他先是批評北約,接著又主動舉例提到日本。“我們和日本有條約,如果日本受到攻擊,我們將打第三次世界大戰。我們要去保護他們,我們要用我們的生命和財富去戰斗。我們將不惜一切代價戰斗,對吧?”特朗普說,“但是如果我們受到攻擊,日本根本不必幫助我們,他們可以在索尼電視上看著。”

    無風不起浪,美方連續讓日本措手不及。美國有線電視新聞網(CNN)稱,本周早些時候,彭博社披露,特朗普私下考慮讓美國退出《美日安保條約》,因為他認為條約偏向日本。特朗普在福克斯采訪中再次提到這一協議。

    與上次彭博社報道后的反應一致,日本政府不得不匆忙通過記者會“滅火”。日本《每日新聞》稱,《日美安保條約》中,第5條規定了美國保護日本的義務,第6條規定了日本向美國提供基地設施的義務。有鑒于此,日本官房長官菅義偉27日表示“日美雙方的義務保持平衡,單方面的指摘并不恰當”。他還就日美同盟稱:“(日美)政府間完全不存在修改安保條約的說法,而且已與美國白宮進行了確認。”

    27日,世界多國領導人乘專機抵達大阪,準備出席G20峰會,其中也包括特朗普。富士電視臺抱怨稱,在日本政府全力辦好G20峰會之際,特朗普總統令人意外的對《日美安保條約》不滿的發言,可以說是煞風景。報道稱,日本政府一直對特朗普禮遇有加,日美同盟關系的重要性也不言而喻。作為日美同盟關系的基礎,《日美安保條約》一直是亞洲安保平衡的重要保障。如果特朗普是為在貿易談判上獲得日本讓步而不惜賭上《日美安保條約》的話,只能說“商人的短視思維不能用于掌管國家”。

    變本加厲

    二戰后日本與美國結成同盟關系,軍事上依賴美國保護。日本的防衛政策將日美同盟作為國家安全的基石,置于首要位置。所以美國威脅退出《美日安保條約》的說法對日本的沖擊可想而知。

    據美國國會研究服務處的數據,目前約5.4萬名美國軍人駐扎在日本的85個軍事設施中。路透社27日稱,根據幾十年前簽訂的安保條約,美國承諾保衛放棄發動戰爭權利的日本。作為回報,日本提供軍事基地,華盛頓利用這些軍事基地向亞洲投射軍事力量,如美國海軍陸戰隊在沖繩駐扎重兵,在東京附近的橫須賀海軍基地則駐扎美國的航母戰斗群。如果美日關系惡化導致美國退出《美日安保條約》,可能會迫使華盛頓從亞洲撤出相當一部分軍事力量,還將使得日本在該地區尋求新的盟友,并加強自身防御力量。

    《日刊體育》稱,盡管日本政府否認,但是特朗普一貫認為《日美安保條約》是不公平的。因此日方的否認不過是代表政府的立場,并不等于否定了特朗普的發言。日本也因為安保條約及其所伴隨的協定而苦惱,但是唐突地就提出廢棄條約,會讓長期建立起來的外交、安保甚至是國家結構無法適應。因為特朗普一句話,就大幅動搖了日美同盟。

    近一個月前,還是另一種畫風。特朗普作為“令和”時代首位國賓訪日,安倍陪同特朗普打高爾夫球、看相撲比賽、品嘗“爐端燒”,雙方大秀親密。特朗普還參觀了橫須賀基地,并與安倍一同登上日本護衛艦“加賀”號,稱贊“美日同盟前所未有地強大”。

    日本時事通訊社27日反駁安保條約“對美國不公平”的說法稱,在和平與發展成為當今世界主流的形勢下,日本根本不會與別國發生戰爭,別國也不會與日本發生戰爭,但是日本每年要拿出巨額稅金承擔大部分駐日美軍軍費。為了表示誠意,在F-35發生墜毀事故后,日本依然大量購買美國F-35戰機,讓特朗普高興。但是這卻換來更進一步的要求和草率言論。日本前首相鳩山由紀夫在推特上稱,對于日本來說,應將此作為脫離對美依賴、思考日本真正需要的安保方式的機會。

    美軍真會撤?

    美國真會退出條約、將駐日美軍撤走嗎?輿論普遍認為,這更像是特朗普的一種施壓手段,目的之一是讓日本承擔更多美國駐軍費用。《朝日新聞》稱,特朗普長期以來一直要求美國在亞洲和歐洲的盟友承擔更多美國駐軍費用。他講話后,負責與美方就駐日美軍支持問題談判的日本官員加強了警惕,預計美方將提出更高要求。

    美國另一個目的被認為是壓迫日本在貿易問題上讓步。“特朗普不會退出《美日安保條約》,該條約在美國的全球戰略中發揮了至關重要的作用。”香港《南華早報》27日援引專家的話分析稱,特朗普的目的是迫使日本做出更大讓步。除了與中國談判,特朗普政府還希望與日本進行類似的貿易談判,減少貿易逆差。美國稱與日本的貿易逆差高達676億美元。5月訪問日本時,特朗普同意暫停上調日本汽車關稅6個月,并預計雙方“可能在8月前”達成協議。

    《琉球新報》刊文稱,威脅退出《日美安保條約》,這是特朗普在將日美安保作為貿易談判的籌碼。在美國對中國形成包圍圈的印太戰略中,與日本的同盟必不可少,即使特朗普想廢除《日美安保條約》,美國國會也一定會反對。《華盛頓郵報》26日也稱,美國政府官員認為,這種情況“極不可能”。▲

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